Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 23, 2026 • 9:00 AM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Vilius Gaubas
33% · 3–6 on hard
65% · 36–19 on clay
50% · 1–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,230 points across 26 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,230 points across 26 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.3 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 78% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.1 | 98% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 83% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sebastian Baez
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,414 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,414 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.5 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.4 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Vilius Gaubas and Sebastian Baez are set to meet at the Madrid on April 23, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Gaubas enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Baez has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Baez leads 1–0 over Gaubas, including a win in their most recent meeting.