Tommy Paul vs Cristian Garin · Match odds & ELO prediction
Houston • Clay • Apr 3, 2025 • 12:00 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Tommy Paul
Key insights
Player performance profile
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,895 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,895 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 73% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 91% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.4 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 48% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Cristian Garin
0% · 0–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,605 points across 29 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,605 points across 29 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 31% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.2 | 25% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 36% | 19% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Tommy Paul and Cristian Garin are set to meet at the Houston on April 3, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Paul enters with a 12–4 record on clay courts in 2025, while Garin has posted a 38–13 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Paul, but the gap is not overwhelming. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.