Tommy Paul vs Cristian Garin · Match odds & ELO prediction
Houston • Clay • Apr 3, 2025 • 12:00 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Tommy Paul
Key insights
Player performance profile
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,544 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,544 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.5 | 77% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 93% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 47% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 52% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Cristian Garin
0% · 0–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,789 points across 30 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,789 points across 30 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 30% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.4 | 87% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.1 | 26% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 36% | 20% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Tommy Paul and Cristian Garin are set to meet at the Houston on April 3, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Paul enters with a 12–4 record on clay courts in 2025, while Garin has posted a 38–13 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Paul, but the gap is not overwhelming. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.