Tommy Paul vs Cristian Garin · Match odds & ELO prediction
Houston • Clay • Apr 3, 2025 • 12:00 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Tommy Paul
Key insights
Player performance profile
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,879 points across 63 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.3 | 75% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 93% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 46% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Cristian Garin
0% · 0–5 on hard
57% · 8–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,321 points across 39 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,321 points across 39 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.0 | 38% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 87% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.5 | 9% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 35% | 16% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Tommy Paul and Cristian Garin are set to meet at the Houston on April 3, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Paul enters with a 12–4 record on clay courts in 2025, while Garin has posted a 38–13 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Paul entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.