Tomas Machac vs Sebastian Baez · Match odds & ELO prediction
Barcelona • Clay • Apr 14, 2026 • 1:40 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Tomas Machac
Key insights
Player performance profile
Tomas Machac
62% · 8–5 on hard
50% · 4–4 on clay
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,714 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,714 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.6 | 64% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 67% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 93% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 88% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sebastian Baez
71% · 10–4 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.8 | 75% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 45% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Tomas Machac and Sebastian Baez are set to meet at the Barcelona on April 14, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Machac enters with a 4–4 record on clay courts in 2026, while Baez has posted a 7–7 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Machac leads 2–0 over Baez, including a win in their most recent meeting.