Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 23, 2026 • 12:00 AM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,895 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,895 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 73% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 91% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.4 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 47% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,601 points across 67 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,601 points across 67 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 32% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 91% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.3 | 91% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 74% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Tommy Paul and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 23, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Paul enters with a 0–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Fokina has posted a 0–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Paul entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Paul leads 4–0 over Fokina, including a win in their most recent meeting.