Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jacob Fearnley · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 4, 2026 • 1:25 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jacob Fearnley
Key insights
Player performance profile
Shintaro Mochizuki
25% · 4–12 on hard
0% · 0–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,549 points across 35 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,549 points across 35 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.8 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 91% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.0 | 58% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 46% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jacob Fearnley
29% · 4–10 on hard
100% · 2–0 on clay
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,476 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,476 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.1 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.6 | 90% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 69% | 91% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Shintaro Mochizuki and Jacob Fearnley are set to meet at the Rome on May 4, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Mochizuki enters with a 0–1 record on clay courts in 2026, while Fearnley has posted a 2–0 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Fearnley entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Fearnley leads 1–0 over Mochizuki, including a win in their most recent meeting.