Sebastian Ofner vs Hugo Gaston · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 23, 2025 • 2:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Sebastian Ofner
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Ofner
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,132 points across 26 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,132 points across 26 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.1 | 75% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.9 | 5% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 55% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 43% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Hugo Gaston
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,849 points across 33 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,849 points across 33 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 74% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 54% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 15% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Ofner and Hugo Gaston are set to meet at the Madrid on April 23, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Ofner enters with a 16–10 record on clay courts in 2025, while Gaston has posted a 6–14 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Gaston entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Ofner leads 3–1 over Gaston, including a win in their most recent meeting.