Sebastian Korda vs Alex De Minaur · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 7, 2026 • 11:40 PM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Korda
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,683 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,683 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 87% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.9 | 51% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.5 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 69% | 90% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,854 points across 86 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,854 points across 86 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 79% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.7 | 98% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.6 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 32% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Korda and Alex De Minaur are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 7, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Korda enters with a 2–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Minaur has posted a 2–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Korda, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Minaur leads 3–1 over Korda, including a win in their most recent meeting.