Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi · Match odds & ELO prediction
Australian Open • Hard • Jan 22, 2026 • 12:15 AM
Final score
1 - 3
Winner Luciano Darderi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
71% · 10–4 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.8 | 73% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 44% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Luciano Darderi
29% · 6–15 on hard
73% · 30–11 on clay
33% · 2–4 on grass
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,423 points across 69 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,423 points across 69 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 53% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 58% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.4 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 89% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi are set to meet at the Australian Open on January 22, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Baez enters with a 10–4 record on hard courts in 2026, while Darderi has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Baez, but the gap is not overwhelming. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 4 wins.