Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Match odds & ELO prediction
Santiago • Clay • Mar 1, 2025 • 11:25 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Sebastian Baez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,839 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,839 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.2 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.9 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
39%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,134 points across 46 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,134 points across 46 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.4 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 64% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.1 | 82% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 66% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli are set to meet at the Santiago on March 1, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Baez enters with a 17–14 record on clay courts in 2025, while Carabelli has posted a 27–14 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Carabelli, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Baez leads 5–1 over Carabelli, including a win in their most recent meeting.