Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen · Match odds & ELO prediction
Geneva • Clay • May 18, 2026 • 8:35 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Alex Michelsen
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
71% · 10–4 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.8 | 75% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 45% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex Michelsen
63% · 12–7 on hard
33% · 2–4 on clay
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,504 points across 66 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,504 points across 66 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 50% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 39% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 51% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 81% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Alex Michelsen are set to meet at the Geneva on May 18, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Baez enters with a 7–7 record on clay courts in 2026, while Michelsen has posted a 2–4 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Michelsen leads 1–0 over Baez, including a win in their most recent meeting.