Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 22, 2026 • 12:00 AM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,839 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,839 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.2 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.9 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Luciano Darderi
29% · 6–15 on hard
73% · 30–11 on clay
33% · 2–4 on grass
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,740 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,740 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 55% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 59% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.8 | 27% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 53% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 22, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Baez enters with a 3–0 record on hard courts in 2026, while Darderi has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Baez entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Baez leads 4–2 over Darderi.