Rafael Jodar vs Alex De Minaur · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 24, 2026 • 6:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Rafael Jodar
Key insights
Player performance profile
Rafael Jodar
86% · 6–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,119 points across 22 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,119 points across 22 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 39% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 92% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.4 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 90% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,942 points across 94 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,942 points across 94 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 75% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.2 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.7 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 47% | 39% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Rafael Jodar and Alex De Minaur are set to meet at the Madrid on April 24, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Jodar enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Minaur has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Jodar leads 1–0 over Minaur, including a win in their most recent meeting.