Paula Badosa vs Julia Grabher · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 21, 2026 • 12:30 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Julia Grabher
Key insights
Player performance profile
Paula Badosa
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,387 points across 35 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,387 points across 35 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 85% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.2 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.5 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 59% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Julia Grabher
33% · 1–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,948 points across 24 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,948 points across 24 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.1 | 16% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -5.6 | 0% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.8 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 20% | 5% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Paula Badosa and Julia Grabher are set to meet at the Madrid on April 21, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Badosa enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Grabher has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Grabher, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Grabher leads 1–0 over Badosa, including a win in their most recent meeting.