Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Denis Shapovalov · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 25, 2026 • 5:35 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Key insights
Player performance profile
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
59% · 10–7 on hard
55% · 6–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,132 points across 29 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,132 points across 29 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 18% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 59% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.7 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 23% | 4% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Denis Shapovalov
50% · 6–6 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,104 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,104 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 83% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.4 | 84% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Denis Shapovalov are set to meet at the Madrid on April 25, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Kjaer enters with a 6–5 record on clay courts in 2026, while Shapovalov has posted a 2–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Shapovalov entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Kjaer leads 1–0 over Shapovalov, including a win in their most recent meeting.