Naomi Osaka vs Lucia Bronzetti · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 22, 2025 • 10:45 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Lucia Bronzetti
Key insights
Player performance profile
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,558 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,558 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.8 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 91% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Lucia Bronzetti
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,617 points across 47 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,617 points across 47 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 17% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.6 | 7% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.7 | 83% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 58% | 68% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Naomi Osaka and Lucia Bronzetti are set to meet at the Madrid on April 22, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Osaka enters with a 8–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Bronzetti has posted a 4–7 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Osaka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Osaka leads 2–1 over Bronzetti.