Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 11, 2026 • 5:55 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Iga Swiatek
Key insights
Player performance profile
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,363 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,363 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.7 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.8 | 89% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 89% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Iga Swiatek
60% · 3–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
64%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,714 points across 93 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,714 points across 93 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.8 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.6 | 98% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.6 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Naomi Osaka and Iga Swiatek are set to meet at the Rome on May 11, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Osaka enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Swiatek has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Swiatek entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Swiatek leads 3–1 over Osaka, including a win in their most recent meeting.