Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 10, 2026 • 12:30 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Naomi Osaka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,363 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,363 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.7 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.8 | 89% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 89% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Diana Shnaider
53% · 8–7 on hard
57% · 4–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,218 points across 68 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,218 points across 68 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.8 | 73% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 41% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.8 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 40% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Naomi Osaka and Diana Shnaider are set to meet at the Rome on May 10, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Osaka enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Shnaider has posted a 4–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Osaka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Osaka leads 1–0 over Shnaider, including a win in their most recent meeting.