Naomi Osaka vs Coco Gauff · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Sep 1, 2025 • 6:25 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Naomi Osaka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,558 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,558 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.8 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 91% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Coco Gauff
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
65%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,833 points across 66 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,833 points across 66 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 70% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.0 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.5 | 92% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 78% | 92% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff are set to meet at the US Open on September 1, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Osaka enters with a 24–9 record on hard courts in 2025, while Gauff has posted a 30–11 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Gauff entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Osaka leads 2–1 over Gauff, including a win in their most recent meeting.