Naomi Osaka vs Caroline Garcia · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Australian Open • Hard • Jan 13, 2025 • 11:35 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Naomi Osaka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,558 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,558 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.8 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 91% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Caroline Garcia
33% · 4–8 on hard
0% · 0–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
42%
9 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,594 points across 12 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,594 points across 12 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 33% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.7 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -11.1 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Naomi Osaka and Caroline Garcia are set to meet at the WTA Australian Open on January 13, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Osaka enters with a 24–9 record on hard courts in 2025, while Garcia has posted a 4–8 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Garcia entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.