Matteo Berrettini vs Holger Rune · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Australian Open • Hard • Jan 16, 2025 • 6:15 AM
Final score
1 - 3
Winner Holger Rune
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Berrettini
54% · 15–13 on hard
57% · 4–3 on clay
0% · 0–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,597 points across 36 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,597 points across 36 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.3 | 9% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.1 | 50% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 44% | 34% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Holger Rune
64% · 23–13 on hard
64% · 9–5 on clay
50% · 2–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,805 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,805 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.8 | 70% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 66% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 40% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Berrettini and Holger Rune are set to meet at the ATP Australian Open on January 16, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Berrettini enters with a 15–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Rune has posted a 23–13 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Berrettini entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Rune leads 3–1 over Berrettini, including a win in their most recent meeting.