Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 10, 2026 • 7:00 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Rafael Jodar
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Arnaldi
25% · 1–3 on hard
55% · 6–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,434 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.8 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.8 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Rafael Jodar
86% · 6–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,119 points across 22 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,119 points across 22 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 39% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 92% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.4 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 90% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Arnaldi and Rafael Jodar are set to meet at the Rome on May 10, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Arnaldi enters with a 6–5 record on clay courts in 2026, while Jodar has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Jodar entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Jodar leads 1–0 over Arnaldi, including a win in their most recent meeting.