Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin · Match odds & ELO prediction
Brisbane • Hard • Dec 31, 2024 • 1:10 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Matteo Arnaldi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Arnaldi
25% · 1–3 on hard
55% · 6–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,937 points across 59 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,937 points across 59 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.7 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.0 | 81% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 66% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alexei Popyrin
18% · 2–9 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,243 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,243 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.0 | 55% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.5 | 9% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.3 | 36% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 40% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Arnaldi and Alexei Popyrin are set to meet at the Brisbane on December 31, 2024 in a hard-court singles match. Arnaldi enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2024, while Popyrin has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Arnaldi, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Arnaldi leads 3–1 over Popyrin, including a win in their most recent meeting.