Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin · Match odds & ELO prediction
Brisbane • Hard • Dec 31, 2024 • 1:10 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Matteo Arnaldi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Arnaldi
100% · 1–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,415 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,415 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.6 | 26% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.6 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.4 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 65% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alexei Popyrin
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,371 points across 43 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,371 points across 43 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.0 | 54% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.2 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.4 | 45% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 64% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Arnaldi and Alexei Popyrin are set to meet at the Brisbane on December 31, 2024 in a hard-court singles match. Arnaldi enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2024, while Popyrin has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Arnaldi, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Arnaldi leads 3–1 over Popyrin, including a win in their most recent meeting.