Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 24, 2025 • 8:40 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Marta Kostyuk
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
63%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,442 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,442 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.9 | 75% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.8 | 42% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 36% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,982 points across 88 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,982 points across 88 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.3 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 73% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 73% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Marta Kostyuk and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the Miami on March 24, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Kostyuk enters with a 19–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Pegula entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–2 over Kostyuk.