Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
Beijing • Hard • Oct 1, 2025 • 2:05 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Marta Kostyuk
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
63%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,608 points across 65 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,608 points across 65 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.2 | 80% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 90% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.8 | 55% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 54% | 56% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
83% · 19–4 on hard
86% · 6–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 72% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 75% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Marta Kostyuk and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the Beijing on October 1, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Kostyuk enters with a 19–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Pegula entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–3 over Kostyuk.