Marin Cilic vs Pablo Carreno-Busta · Match odds & ELO prediction
Girona • Clay • Mar 28, 2025 • 3:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Marin Cilic
Key insights
Player performance profile
Marin Cilic
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,807 points across 25 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,807 points across 25 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 58% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.8 | 32% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 50% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
50% · 2–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,997 points across 32 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,997 points across 32 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 38% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.5 | 35% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.6 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 35% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno-Busta are set to meet at the Girona on March 28, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Cilic enters with a 11–7 record on clay courts in 2025, while Carreno-Busta has posted a 13–13 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Cilic leads 2–1 over Carreno-Busta, including a win in their most recent meeting.