Maria Timofeeva vs Lourdes Carle Maria · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Merida • Hard • Feb 22, 2026 • 5:50 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Maria Timofeeva
Key insights
Player performance profile
Maria Timofeeva
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,358 points across 16 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,358 points across 16 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.0 | 9% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 62% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.5 | 70% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 75% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Lourdes Carle Maria
44% · 7–9 on hard
55% · 26–21 on clay
0% · 0–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,688 points across 27 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,688 points across 27 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.0 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -6.2 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 17% | 5% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Maria Timofeeva and Lourdes Carle Maria are set to meet at the WTA Merida on February 22, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Timofeeva enters with a 1–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Maria has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Timofeeva, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Timofeeva leads 3–0 over Maria, including a win in their most recent meeting.