Maria Timofeeva vs Lourdes Carle Maria · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Merida • Hard • Feb 22, 2026 • 5:50 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Maria Timofeeva
Key insights
Player performance profile
Maria Timofeeva
45% · 5–6 on hard
67% · 8–4 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,881 points across 20 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,881 points across 20 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 13% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 74% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.8 | 75% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 86% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Lourdes Carle Maria
43% · 3–4 on hard
33% · 4–8 on clay
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,027 points across 29 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,027 points across 29 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -7.5 | 5% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 17% | 4% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Maria Timofeeva and Lourdes Carle Maria are set to meet at the WTA Merida on February 22, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Timofeeva enters with a 5–6 record on hard courts in 2026, while Maria has posted a 3–4 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Timofeeva, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Timofeeva leads 3–1 over Maria.