Maria Sakkari vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
Montreal • Hard • Jul 30, 2025 • 8:30 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Maria Sakkari
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,753 points across 55 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,753 points across 55 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 38% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.1 | 25% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.8 | 26% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 38% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 93% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 70% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 59% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Maria Sakkari and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the Montreal on July 30, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sakkari enters with a 15–20 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Sakkari entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 7–3 over Sakkari, including a win in their most recent meeting.