Maria Mateas vs Varvara Lepchenko · Match odds & ELO prediction
Cancun • Hard • Feb 11, 2025 • 10:50 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Varvara Lepchenko
Key insights
Player performance profile
Maria Mateas
50% · 13–13 on hard
42% · 5–7 on clay
0% · 0–3 on grass
Games won (last 10)
44%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~808 points across 6 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~808 points across 6 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.1 | 1% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.1 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Varvara Lepchenko
52% · 17–16 on hard
55% · 21–17 on clay
25% · 1–3 on grass
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,298 points across 24 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,298 points across 24 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 40% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.8 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.8 | 41% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Maria Mateas and Varvara Lepchenko are set to meet at the Cancun on February 11, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Mateas enters with a 13–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Lepchenko has posted a 17–16 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Lepchenko entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 1 wins.