Marcos Giron vs Denis Shapovalov · Match odds & ELO prediction
Basel • Hard • Oct 21, 2025 • 3:35 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Denis Shapovalov
Key insights
Player performance profile
Marcos Giron
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,336 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,336 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 36% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.2 | 42% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.5 | 44% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 46% | 37% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Denis Shapovalov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,104 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,104 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 39% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 82% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.4 | 84% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Marcos Giron and Denis Shapovalov are set to meet at the Basel on October 21, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Giron enters with a 15–18 record on hard courts in 2025, while Shapovalov has posted a 23–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Giron entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Giron leads 3–2 over Shapovalov.