Madison Keys vs Yuliia Starodubtseva · Match odds & ELO prediction
Paris • Clay • May 16, 2026 • 12:25 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Madison Keys
Key insights
Player performance profile
Madison Keys
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
58%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,359 points across 62 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,359 points across 62 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 90% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 65% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.1 | 85% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 92% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Yuliia Starodubtseva
55% · 11–9 on hard
70% · 7–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,196 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,196 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 42% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 65% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.3 | 13% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 29% | 12% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Madison Keys and Yuliia Starodubtseva are set to meet at the Paris on May 16, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Keys enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Starodubtseva has posted a 7–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Keys entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 1 wins.