Mackenzie McDonald vs Pavel Kotov · Match odds & ELO prediction
Jinan • Hard • Oct 9, 2025 • 7:40 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Mackenzie McDonald
Key insights
Player performance profile
Mackenzie McDonald
59% · 32–22 on hard
20% · 1–4 on clay
55% · 6–5 on grass
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,754 points across 45 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,754 points across 45 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 51% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 56% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.1 | 83% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 64% | 80% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Pavel Kotov
39% · 9–14 on hard
22% · 2–7 on clay
0% · 0–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,619 points across 16 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,619 points across 16 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.9 | 26% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.9 | 32% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 13% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Mackenzie McDonald and Pavel Kotov are set to meet at the Jinan on October 9, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. McDonald enters with a 32–22 record on hard courts in 2025, while Kotov has posted a 9–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for McDonald entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, McDonald leads 2–0 over Kotov, including a win in their most recent meeting.