Luka Pavlovic vs Stefano Napolitano · Match odds & ELO prediction
Kigali • Clay • Mar 5, 2026 • 8:10 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Stefano Napolitano
Key insights
Player performance profile
Luka Pavlovic
25% · 1–3 on hard
61% · 30–19 on clay
67% · 2–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,636 points across 9 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,636 points across 9 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 30% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.9 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.5 | 89% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 75% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Stefano Napolitano
47% · 7–8 on hard
55% · 12–10 on clay
0% · 0–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,072 points across 7 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,072 points across 7 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.5 | 0% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.8 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.6 | 42% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Luka Pavlovic and Stefano Napolitano are set to meet at the Kigali on March 5, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Pavlovic enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Napolitano has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Pavlovic entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Napolitano leads 2–1 over Pavlovic, including a win in their most recent meeting.