Lourdes Carle Maria vs Rebecca Sramkova · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 23, 2025 • 11:30 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Lourdes Carle Maria
Key insights
Player performance profile
Lourdes Carle Maria
44% · 7–9 on hard
55% · 26–21 on clay
0% · 0–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,027 points across 29 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,027 points across 29 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -7.5 | 5% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 17% | 4% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Rebecca Sramkova
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,677 points across 62 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,677 points across 62 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.0 | 49% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.2 | 26% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.7 | 70% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 60% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Lourdes Carle Maria and Rebecca Sramkova are set to meet at the Madrid on April 23, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Maria enters with a 26–21 record on clay courts in 2025, while Sramkova has posted a 2–4 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Sramkova, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Maria leads 1–0 over Sramkova, including a win in their most recent meeting.