Lorenzo Musetti vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · Match odds & ELO prediction
Monte Carlo • Clay • Apr 11, 2025 • 2:35 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Lorenzo Musetti
Key insights
Player performance profile
Lorenzo Musetti
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,330 points across 64 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,330 points across 64 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 84% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.4 | 87% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.7 | 56% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 66% | 85% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
100% · 3–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,458 points across 40 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,458 points across 40 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 92% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.2 | 40% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.8 | 34% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 64% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Lorenzo Musetti and Stefanos Tsitsipas are set to meet at the Monte Carlo on April 11, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Musetti enters with a 19–4 record on clay courts in 2025, while Tsitsipas has posted a 7–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Musetti entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Tsitsipas leads 3–2 over Musetti.