Lorenzo Musetti vs Felix Auger-Aliassime · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 23, 2025 • 5:30 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Lorenzo Musetti
Key insights
Player performance profile
Lorenzo Musetti
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,744 points across 67 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,744 points across 67 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.1 | 86% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 86% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.4 | 54% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 65% | 83% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,987 points across 79 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,987 points across 79 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.4 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 61% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.9 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 68% | 90% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime are set to meet at the Miami on March 23, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Musetti enters with a 26–17 record on hard courts in 2025, while Auger-Aliassime has posted a 43–16 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Auger-Aliassime, but the gap is not overwhelming. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 3 wins.