Lorenzo Musetti vs Felix Auger-Aliassime · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 23, 2025 • 5:30 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Lorenzo Musetti
Key insights
Player performance profile
Lorenzo Musetti
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,672 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,672 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.8 | 82% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.0 | 47% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 81% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,345 points across 88 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,345 points across 88 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.9 | 96% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.8 | 52% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.0 | 67% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 69% | 91% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime are set to meet at the Miami on March 23, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Musetti enters with a 26–17 record on hard courts in 2025, while Auger-Aliassime has posted a 43–16 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Auger-Aliassime, but the gap is not overwhelming. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 3 wins.