Lia Karatancheva vs Varvara Lepchenko · Match odds & ELO prediction
Bogota • Clay • Mar 31, 2026 • 3:40 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Varvara Lepchenko
Key insights
Player performance profile
Lia Karatancheva
27% · 3–8 on hard
54% · 27–23 on clay
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~623 points across 9 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~623 points across 9 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 59% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 38% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.8 | 17% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Varvara Lepchenko
52% · 17–16 on hard
55% · 21–17 on clay
25% · 1–3 on grass
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,932 points across 29 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,932 points across 29 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.0 | 47% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.4 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 40% | 26% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Lia Karatancheva and Varvara Lepchenko are set to meet at the Bogota on March 31, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Karatancheva enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Lepchenko has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Lepchenko entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Lepchenko leads 2–0 over Karatancheva, including a win in their most recent meeting.