Leylah Fernandez vs Elena Rybakina · Match odds & ELO prediction
Washington • Hard • Jul 26, 2025 • 6:40 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Leylah Fernandez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Leylah Fernandez
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,077 points across 57 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,077 points across 57 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.7 | 84% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.0 | 25% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.8 | 43% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 50% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elena Rybakina
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,339 points across 85 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,339 points across 85 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 7.5 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 35% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.2 | 69% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Leylah Fernandez and Elena Rybakina are set to meet at the Washington on July 26, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Fernandez enters with a 28–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Rybakina has posted a 42–13 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Rybakina, but the gap is not overwhelming. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.