Laura Siegemund vs Jasmine Paolini · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 23, 2026 • 1:00 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Jasmine Paolini
Key insights
Player performance profile
Laura Siegemund
33% · 3–6 on hard
50% · 2–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,814 points across 53 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,814 points across 53 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.2 | 43% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 52% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.1 | 15% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 36% | 20% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jasmine Paolini
53% · 8–7 on hard
33% · 1–2 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,463 points across 76 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,463 points across 76 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 61% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.0 | 83% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.5 | 61% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 59% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Laura Siegemund and Jasmine Paolini are set to meet at the Madrid on April 23, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Siegemund enters with a 2–2 record on clay courts in 2026, while Paolini has posted a 1–2 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Siegemund entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Paolini leads 2–0 over Siegemund, including a win in their most recent meeting.