Luca van Assche vs Pablo Carreno-Busta · Match odds & ELO prediction
Estoril • Clay • Jul 23, 2026 • 10:00 AM
Key insights
Player performance profile
Luca van Assche
75% · 18–6 on hard
50% · 5–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
41%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,637 points across 29 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,637 points across 29 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.8 | 25% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 93% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -5.5 | 8% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 36% | 17% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
53% · 8–7 on hard
79% · 11–3 on clay
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,531 points across 42 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,531 points across 42 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 43% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 38% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 73% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Luca van Assche and Pablo Carreno-Busta are set to meet at the Estoril on July 23, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Assche enters with a 5–5 record on clay courts in 2026, while Carreno-Busta has posted a 11–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Carreno-Busta entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Assche leads 1–0 over Carreno-Busta, including a win in their most recent meeting.