L. Samsonova vs Naomi Osaka · Match odds & ELO prediction
Montreal • Hard • Jul 30, 2025 • 3:10 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Naomi Osaka
Key insights
Player performance profile
L. Samsonova
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,648 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,648 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.4 | 83% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.9 | 67% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.0 | 100% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 83% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,904 points across 46 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,904 points across 46 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.8 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 39% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.9 | 92% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 82% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
L. Samsonova and Naomi Osaka are set to meet at the Montreal on July 30, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Samsonova enters with a 15–15 record on hard courts in 2025, while Osaka has posted a 24–9 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Osaka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Osaka leads 2–1 over Samsonova, including a win in their most recent meeting.