Kei Nishikori vs Colton Smith · Match odds & ELO prediction
Savannah • Clay • Apr 21, 2026 • 12:15 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Kei Nishikori
Key insights
Player performance profile
Kei Nishikori
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,582 points across 16 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,582 points across 16 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 62% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.8 | 65% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 52% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Colton Smith
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,433 points across 26 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,433 points across 26 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.3 | 34% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 86% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.6 | 54% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 43% | 30% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Kei Nishikori and Colton Smith are set to meet at the Savannah on April 21, 2026 in a clay-court singles match. Nishikori enters with limited recorded results on clay courts in 2026, while Smith has limited recorded results on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Smith, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Nishikori leads 1–0 over Smith, including a win in their most recent meeting.