Katie Swan vs Naomi Osaka · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA United Cup • Hard • Jan 4, 2026 • 4:20 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Naomi Osaka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Katie Swan
33% · 4–8 on hard
Games won (last 10)
41%
3 matches tracked · limited sample
Player Skillset
Based on ~173 points across 1 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~173 points across 1 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.8 | 35% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 42% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.1 | 66% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Naomi Osaka
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,363 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,363 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.7 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 32% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.8 | 89% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 89% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Katie Swan and Naomi Osaka are set to meet at the WTA United Cup on January 4, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Swan enters with a 4–8 record on hard courts in 2026, while Osaka has posted a 1–1 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Osaka entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Osaka leads 1–0 over Swan, including a win in their most recent meeting.