Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 7, 2026 • 9:00 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Joao Fonseca
Key insights
Player performance profile
Karen Khachanov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,748 points across 59 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,748 points across 59 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.0 | 85% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.1 | 66% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.4 | 25% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 32% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Joao Fonseca
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,151 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,151 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.5 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 60% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.8 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 63% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Karen Khachanov and Joao Fonseca are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 7, 2026 in a hard-court singles match. Khachanov enters with a 0–1 record on hard courts in 2026, while Fonseca has posted a 0–0 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Khachanov leads 1–0 over Fonseca, including a win in their most recent meeting.