Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 13, 2025 • 9:10 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Karen Khachanov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,201 points across 68 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,201 points across 68 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 84% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.1 | 64% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.6 | 26% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 44% | 30% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,826 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.0 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Karen Khachanov and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the Rome on May 13, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Khachanov enters with a 9–6 record on clay courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 22–1 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Alcaraz entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 6–0 over Khachanov, including a win in their most recent meeting.