Jordan Thompson vs Brandon Nakashima · Match odds & ELO prediction
Tokyo • Hard • Sep 25, 2025 • 6:00 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Brandon Nakashima
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jordan Thompson
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,709 points across 26 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,709 points across 26 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 67% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.3 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.7 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Brandon Nakashima
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,482 points across 71 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,482 points across 71 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 91% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.4 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.6 | 32% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 58% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jordan Thompson and Brandon Nakashima are set to meet at the Tokyo on September 25, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Thompson enters with a 10–11 record on hard courts in 2025, while Nakashima has posted a 21–19 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Nakashima entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Nakashima leads 5–2 over Thompson, including a win in their most recent meeting.