Jordan Thompson vs Adrian Mannarino · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Aug 27, 2025 • 10:45 PM
Final score
1 - 3
Winner Adrian Mannarino
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jordan Thompson
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,563 points across 25 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,563 points across 25 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.7 | 69% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.1 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.5 | 78% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Adrian Mannarino
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,133 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,133 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.3 | 41% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 78% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.6 | 16% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 33% | 14% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jordan Thompson and Adrian Mannarino are set to meet at the US Open on August 27, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Thompson enters with a 10–11 record on hard courts in 2025, while Mannarino has posted a 16–22 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Thompson, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Mannarino leads 5–3 over Thompson, including a win in their most recent meeting.