Joao Fonseca vs Learner Tien · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 20, 2025 • 11:10 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Joao Fonseca
Key insights
Player performance profile
Joao Fonseca
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,337 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,337 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.5 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.7 | 58% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.5 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 66% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Learner Tien
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,158 points across 72 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,158 points across 72 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.1 | 34% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 74% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.1 | 65% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 41% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien are set to meet at the Miami on March 20, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Fonseca enters with a 26–8 record on hard courts in 2025, while Tien has posted a 32–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Tien entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Fonseca leads 4–1 over Tien, including a win in their most recent meeting.