Jessica Pegula vs Victoria Azarenka · Match odds & ELO prediction
US Open • Hard • Aug 29, 2025 • 6:00 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.9 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Victoria Azarenka
46% · 6–7 on hard
40% · 2–3 on clay
60% · 3–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,909 points across 21 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,909 points across 21 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 57% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 71% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -10.8 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Victoria Azarenka are set to meet at the US Open on August 29, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 37–14 record on hard courts in 2025, while Azarenka has posted a 6–7 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Pegula, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 3–2 over Azarenka, including a win in their most recent meeting.