Jessica Pegula vs McCartney Kessler · Match odds & ELO prediction
Austin • Hard • Mar 2, 2025 • 7:40 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 93% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 70% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 59% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
McCartney Kessler
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,975 points across 51 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,975 points across 51 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.2 | 48% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 54% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.7 | 64% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 74% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and McCartney Kessler are set to meet at the Austin on March 2, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 37–14 record on hard courts in 2025, while Kessler has posted a 27–16 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Kessler entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 2–0 over Kessler, including a win in their most recent meeting.