Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez · Match odds & ELO prediction
Washington • Hard • Jul 24, 2025 • 9:40 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Leylah Fernandez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
83% · 19–4 on hard
86% · 6–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 72% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 75% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Leylah Fernandez
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,487 points across 66 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,487 points across 66 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.0 | 89% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.3 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.7 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 53% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez are set to meet at the Washington on July 24, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 37–14 record on hard courts in 2025, while Fernandez has posted a 28–16 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Pegula entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 3–1 over Fernandez, including a win in their most recent meeting.